Prop Bets and Picks for NFL Thanksgiving Day Games

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NFL Thanksgiving games is an annual tradition in the NFL since 1934. It all started with the Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions at the University of Detroit Stadium. Football is as common as turkey and stuffing in the United States.

Thanksgiving Day NFL football has gone from the Lions playing on Thursday to three games. The Dallas Cowboys started their Thanksgiving tradition in 1966. They play following the Lions in the late afternoon slot.

Thankful for 🏈. See you on Thanksgiving. #MaddenThanksgiving pic.twitter.com/BODI4j05MB

— NFL (@NFL) November 22, 2022

There was a third “wildcard” game introduced around a decade ago on NBC. The NBC night game does not feature a specific team. The 2022 NFL Thanksgiving games include the Bills-Lions, Giants-Cowboys, and Patriots-Vikings.

All three games have playoff implications. The Bills are looking to win the AFC East, and possibly win the No. 1 seed overall in the AFC. Meanwhile, the Lions are alive in the NFC wildcard race at 4-6, believe it or not.

The Giants and Cowboys are a monster matchup that might decide the NFC East. It is going to be tough to overtake the Eagles, but there are still enough games left on the schedule. They are tied at 7-3, while the Eagles are comfortably in first at 9-1.

New England is trying to play catch-up in the AFC East. They are not winning the division, but still alive and well for the wildcard at 6-4. The Vikings are 8-2 and in the clear for the NFC North, but are they a bit fraudish?

We are going over all of the NFL Thanksgiving Day games for this Thursday. In particular, we have NFL Thanksgiving prop bets at TheSportsGeek.

The props for the NFL Thanksgiving games are live at Bovada. Visit our Online NFL Betting page for the best sportsbooks for NFL Thanksgiving games.

NFL Thanksgiving Predictions

We are going to briefly go over our NFL Thanksgiving predictions. Following our predictions, we will have our best NFL Thanksgiving games prop bets.

Note that our predictions against the spread are not official bets, but our NFL Thanksgiving props are on the record. Best of luck with your NFL Thanksgiving betting!

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Buffalo Bills vs. Detroit Lions Prop Bets and Predictions

Bills vs Lions Odds Courtesy of Bovada:

Teams
Spread
Moneyline
Total

Buffalo Bills
-10 (-105)
-500
Over 54.5 (-110)

Detroit Lions
+10 (-115)
+360
Under 54.5 (-110)

The Bills will play their second consecutive game at Ford Field. They went to Detroit after the historic snowstorm in Buffalo bumped their matchup against the Browns to Detroit.

Buffalo lost one of their home games this season, but no harm no foul, as they defeated the Browns, 31-23. The win ended a two-game losing streak for the Bills.

GIANT win pic.twitter.com/9Lqieha6qx

— Detroit Lions (@Lions) November 21, 2022

The Lions are on a three-game winning streak after an impressive performance at MetLife Stadium over the Giants. They are suddenly in the NFC playoff hunt after a 1-6 start.

It is a long shot, but the Lions are alive and playing much better football.

The catalyst has been a defense that is showing major strides forward. Aidan Hutchinson is figuring it all out and looks worthy of his draft position.

Hutchinson and the defense have a tough assignment, but they are getting a lot of points. The Bills should win for the second straight week at Ford Field. However, the Lions getting double digits is worth considering.

Josh Allen Rushing Yards

Over 42.5
-114

Under 42.5
-114

The Lions have increasingly been aggressive in the trenches on both sides of the ball. They are creating a very good offensive and defensive line under Dan Campbell. That is a good first step on how to win football games.

However, against mobile quarterbacks, they have been overpursuing too much. Jalen Hurts and Justin Fields are good examples of quarterbacks that beat the Lions on the ground.

Very encouraging sign for #Billsmafia today. Josh Allen was not wearing any sleeve or brace on his right elbow. He also threw passes during the media-available portion of practice for the first time since injuring his elbow 🎥 pic.twitter.com/aSfWY5by1E

— Sal Capaccio 🏈 (@SalSports) November 22, 2022

Hurts ran for 90 yards on 7.4 yards per attempt against the Lions. Fields gashed the Lions for 147 yards on 11.3 yards per attempt two games ago.

Daniel Jones ended up putting together 50 yards on 7.1 yards per attempt despite it looking like he wasn’t getting much done. He was able to benefit from a defensive line overpursuing and allowing him to slip free.

Allen has gained 483 yards on 6.8 yards per attempt as a runner this season. He’s rushed for a minimum of 43 yards in six games this season, including three times in his last four outings.

Look for Allen to find room to run up the middle of the Lions’ defense. This number looks too low. He should go over 50 yards on the ground.

Thanksgiving Day Prop Bet

OVER 42.5

-114
Place Bet Now!

Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards

Over 88.5
-115

Under 88.5
-113

If there was a Most Improved Player award for the Lions it would be cornerback Jeff Okudah. He has blanketed some talented receivers this season. However, it does not look hopeful that Okudah will be active on Thanksgiving.

He was injured in the win against the Giants and looks doubtful. This is a big plus for Allen and the passing game. Stefon Diggs stands to benefit the most without Okudah on the field.

STEFON DIGGS, ARE YOU KIDDING ME?!?!

📺: @NFLonFOX pic.twitter.com/VNSTVmePim

— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) November 13, 2022

Diggs is going into Week 12 with 1,033 yards, 8 touchdowns, and 76 receptions. Allen’s primary target has caught more than 100 yards in six games this season.

He has 100+ yards in four of his previous six outings. The Lions are 28th in the league, with an average of 262.2 passing yards allowed per game. Expect Diggs to feast for more than 90 yards.

Thanksgiving Day Prop Bet

OVER 88.5

-115
Place Bet Now!

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards

Over 73.5
-114

Under 73.5
-114

If the Lions are going to have a chance in this game, they will have to get the ball into the hands of Amon-Ra St. Brown. He missed some time with and was bothered by a bad ankle, but St. Brown has gotten on track in the last two games.

The 23-year-old has 594 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 78 receptions going into the NFL Thanksgiving game. St. Brown is coming off back-to-back games with at least 76 yards receiving.

He had a big showing against the Bears with 119 yards, and then came back this past week with 76 yards in New York. St. Brown appears over the ankle injury and is running around at full speed.

He did not look right for a few weeks, but is back on track. Look for St. Brown to continue to play well. Jared Goff needs St. Brown to have a productive Thanksgiving. He should have a 75+ yard game.

Thanksgiving Day Prop Bet

OVER 73.5

-114
Place Bet Now!

New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys Prop Bets and Predictions

Giants vs Cowboys Odds Courtesy of Bovada:

Teams
Spread
Moneyline
Total

New York Giants
+9.5 (-110)
+325
Over 45.5 (-110)

Dallas Cowboys
-9.5 (-110)
-435
Under 45.5 (-110)

This is an interesting matchup between two rivals at AT&T Stadium on Thanksgiving. It might look like another game for the underdog. The Giants are getting 9.5 points in Texas against the Cowboys.

The point spread might have something to do with what happened in Week 11. The Giants lost to the Lions at home, while the Cowboys destroyed the Vikings. Fair point. However, this might provide some value on the Giants.

The Giants are seen as losers now after that effort. Meanwhile, the public is jumping on the Cowboys as a Super Bowl contender. The Cowboys are probably the better team, but the point spread looks too inflated based on recency bias from last week.

Saquon Barkley Rushing Yards

Over 75.5
-114

Under 75.5
-114

Defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn and the Lions did a standout job on Saquon Barkley. Barkley was held to a season-low 22 yards and just 1.5 yards per carry. He was the leading rusher in the NFL before getting neutralized.

Saquon Barkley is BACK on top! 💪

Rushing leaders in the #NFL this season. ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/znHVhMXMxy

— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) November 15, 2022

This was after running for 152 yards and 4.3 yards per carry against the Texans a week earlier. The Giants must get Barkley going in this one or it will be a long day.

We are expecting Barkley to bounce back with a strong performance on Thanksgiving Day. He should have room to run against a Dallas defense that has not been a pinnacle of success.

The Cowboys are 26th in the NFL, with an average of 136.1 rushing yards allowed per game. Barkley is entering with 953 yards and 6 touchdowns on 4.5 yards per carry.

He will be back and much better in Arlington this week. Consider looking at the Barkley rushing prop for one of the NFL Thanksgiving games on Thursday. The Giants won’t pass into the best secondary in the NFL.

Thanksgiving Day Prop Bet

OVER 75.5

-114
Place Bet Now!

Ezekiel Elliott Rushing Yards

Over 45.5
-118

Under 45.5
-110

From one running back to another. We are looking at Cowboys’ rusher, Ezekiel Elliott for this Thanksgiving prop bet. Elliott and Tony Pollard have been splitting the running back duties for the Cowboys in 2022.

Elliott is seeing a healthy number of carries recently. He’s had at least 15 attempts in six of his previous seven games. Elliott has been getting opportunities and doing well enough.

This does not look like the same guy from 2018-2019, but Elliott has been decent. He has gained 485 yards and 6 touchdowns on 3.9 yards per attempt.

Elliott has run for more than 45 yards in seven of eight outings. The Giants are 25th versus the run, with 135.9 yards against per game. This looks like a great spot to play a Zeke rushing prop on Thanksgiving.

Thanksgiving Day Prop Bet

OVER 45.5

-118
Place Bet Now!

New England Patriots vs. Minnesota Vikings Prop Bets and Predictions

Patriots vs Vikings Odds Courtesy of Bovada:

Teams
Spread
Moneyline
Total

New England Patriots
+3 (-115)
+125
Over 42 (-110)

Minnesota Vikings
-3 (-105)
-145
Under 42 (-110)

The Patriots and Vikings meet in the latest of the NFL Thanksgiving games on Thursday. This is a primetime matchup on NBC. The point spread is right around where I’d have this matchup at.

There is not much value on either side, with a slight lean to the Vikings to cover 3 points. If the Patriots’ defense does not excel, then they will not be able to keep up with the Vikings. However, the defense is fully capable of shutting the offense of the Vikings down.

Micah Parsons and the Cowboys ICED the Vikings in Minnesota ❄️ pic.twitter.com/SJUY7QxfPp

— ESPN (@espn) November 21, 2022

Minnesota is coming off a humiliating 40-3 loss to the Cowboys at home. It is hard to see them not coming out with a much better performance. Bill Belichick should have a good game plan, but he needs more from Mac Jones on Thursday night.

The Patriots are 6-4 and in the wildcard hunt. They are winning games with defense alone. At some point, Jones has to start putting points on the board.

Mac Jones Passing Yards

Over 222.5
-115

Under 222.5
-113

Mac Jones should have some success on Thanksgiving Day. He has a grand opportunity against a bad secondary. Do not expect Jones to go for more than 300 yards, but that is not required with this prop.

The Vikings are next to last in the secondary this season. They have conceded an average of 267.3 passing yards per game. Only the Steelers have been worse than the Vikings against the pass in 2022.

Jones is not a quarterback to dice any defense up, but Belichick will at least give him the opportunity. He has passed for 1,386 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions on 68.7% completions.

In his latest start, Jones passed for 246 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions. The defense won the game in a 10-3 final. This bet is based more on the low number and beatable Minnesota secondary than Jones.

Thanksgiving Day Prop Bet

OVER 222.5

-115
Place Bet Now!

Kirk Cousins Passing Interceptions

Over 0.5
+102

Under 0.5
-132

If the Patriots win on Thursday night, it’s because their secondary held Kirk Cousins down. It is very possible. The Patriots have one of the best defenses in the NFL in 2022.

They are fourth in the league with 188.3 passing yards allowed per game. Along with holding quarterbacks in check, the Patriots have been able to force turnovers.

The Patriots are also in the top-5 in interceptions per game. They have forced opposing quarterbacks to throw an average of 1.1 interceptions a game.

Cousins has passed for 14 touchdowns and 8 interceptions this season. Across his last three outings, he has tossed 3 interceptions. The Bills took Cousins for 2 interceptions two weeks back.

At plus money, Cousins throwing at least one interception is worth a look on Thanksgiving. He is unlikely to be perfect against the Patriots’ secondary.

Thanksgiving Day Prop Bet

OVER 0.5

+102
Place Bet Now!

Justin Jefferson Receptions

Over 6.5
+100

Under 6.5
-130

Belichick is well-known for taking a team’s best target out of the game. He forces offenses to look elsewhere to beat their defense. Justin Jefferson will be a top assignment for the Pats to stop.

Jefferson is going into Thursday night with 1,093 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 72 receptions. He has been one of the most dangerous receivers in the NFL this season.

Along with the Patriots circling Jefferson, the Vikings are not going to gamble if they get a lead in this one. They are aware that the Patriots have a tough time moving the ball.

The Vikings will keep the ball on the ground with a lead. Taking chances will not be required to win if the Vikings get out to a decent lead.

Jefferson has caught fewer than 7 receptions in three of his previous five outings. An equally strong secondary, the Cowboys, held Jefferson to 3 receptions and 33 yards.

He will do better this week, but a 5-reception game for 75 yards looks right. Consider betting the UNDER on Jefferson’s reception Thanksgiving prop bet.

Thanksgiving Day Prop Bet

UNDER 6.5

-130
Place Bet Now!

Author: Bobby Rodriguez